OSINT

Decision Chain Mapping

Documenting the sequence of people and approval steps through which an investment decision flows from screening to final commitment.

Understanding decision chains prevents misrouting (pitching to influencers who can't approve) and enables strategic positioning at each gate (different messaging for screener vs IC).

Expanded Definition

Decision chains typically include: initial screener (analyst, associate), investment team evaluation (senior professionals), IC memo author (responsible for written case), IC presentation (decision recommendation), IC vote (approval authority), legal/compliance review (terms validation), and final signature (often CFO or principal). Chain length and formality vary by allocator type and check size.

Chain complexity differs: simple (principal-led: 1-2 steps), moderate (CIO-led: 3-4 steps including IC), complex (institutional: 5-7 steps with multiple committees). Larger checks often require more approval layers; smaller checks may have delegated authority paths.

Signals & Evidence

Decision chain indicators:

  • Organizational structure: Titles, reporting relationships, committee membership
  • Process description: "Our process includes..." language on website or in conversations
  • Historical patterns: How past decisions moved (observable through timing, communications)
  • Delegation thresholds: "$10M+ requires IC approval" indicates chain bifurcation
  • Approval artifacts: Who signs commitment letters, who attends final meetings

Decision Framework

  • Chain mapping: Identify each step (screening, evaluation, recommendation, approval, execution)
  • Stakeholder positioning: Tailor messaging for each chain participant (analyst wants data; IC wants thesis; legal wants risk mitigation)
  • Progress tracking: Understand current stage and next gate to forecast timing and prepare appropriately

Common Misconceptions

"CIO = decision-maker always" → Many CIOs recommend but don't approve; IC or principal holds final authority. "One pitch fits all" → Different chain participants need different information; analyst needs detail; IC needs thesis summary. "Chains are linear" → Often iterative with loops back to earlier stages for questions, clarifications, or additional diligence.

Key Takeaways

  • Decision chains map approval sequence from screening through final commitment—understanding prevents misrouting and enables stage-appropriate positioning
  • Chain complexity varies by allocator type, check size, and delegation thresholds—map before engaging
  • Different chain participants need different messaging (analyst wants details; IC wants thesis; legal wants risk controls)