Intent Signal Detection

Intent signals enable prioritization—targeting allocators currently in-market dramatically improves conversion versus broad outreach to passive targets.

Expanded Definition

Intent signals include: team expansion (investment team hiring), public statements (declared allocation targets, conference comments about raising allocations), portfolio activity (recent commitments signaling pacing momentum), conference presence (increased attendance at fundraising events), RFP releases (formal manager searches), and network engagement (requesting introductions, attending demo days).

Signal strength varies: strong (RFP release, dedicated hiring, public allocation targets), moderate (increased conference attendance, recent commitments), weak (general market commentary, exploratory conversations). Temporal decay matters—signals lose relevance as quarters pass without action.

Signals & Evidence

Intent signal indicators:

• Team expansion: Investment team job postings, new hire announcements, organizational growth
• Public statements: "Increasing allocation to [asset class]" comments, target portfolio weights disclosed
• Recent activity: Fund commitments announced, co-investments completed, pacing momentum visible
• Conference behavior: Panel speaking, active networking, demo day attendance, increased event presence
• Network requests: Asking for manager introductions, reference calls, requesting pitch meetings
• Formal searches: RFPs released, consultant engagements, manager screening processes

Decision Framework

• Signal prioritization: Strong signals (team hiring, public targets) warrant immediate outreach; weak signals (general commentary) inform but don't trigger
• Timing optimization: Engage shortly after signal detection while intent is current; delays reduce relevance
• Signal verification: Combine multiple weak signals to confirm intent before high-effort engagement

Common Misconceptions

"Conference attendance = intent" → Attendance alone is weak signal; active networking, panel speaking, demo day presence strengthen it. "Intent = immediate commitment" → Signals indicate searching phase; still requires qualification, diligence, IC approval. "Signals persist indefinitely" → Decay over quarters; re-detect periodically rather than assuming ongoing intent.

Key Takeaways

• Intent signals (team hiring, public targets, recent activity) identify allocators currently searching for new managers
• Signal strength varies—prioritize strong signals (hiring, RFPs, public targets) over weak ones (general commentary)
• Signals decay over time; engage shortly after detection and re-verify periodically rather than assuming persistent intent