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Kalshi
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US, letting traders buy event-outcome contracts on economics, climate, and politics.
Kalshi
Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, former financial-industry professionals who met at MIT. The firm spent three years navigating the regulatory process before receiving a formal designation as a Designated Contract Market from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in late 2020 — a first for an event-contract exchange. That approval placed Kalshi under the same regulatory umbrella as the CME Group, though for a fundamentally different product: all-or-nothing binary option contracts on discrete event outcomes, rather than traditional commodity or financial derivatives. The founding bet was that retail and institutional users would embrace a regulated alternative to offshore prediction venues, and the exchange went live in July 2021. The firm operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, offering event contracts across categories including economics, climate, politics, and pop culture. Traders buy 'yes' or 'no' positions on specific outcomes — for example, whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates by a particular meeting, or whether a given month will rank among the hottest on record — with contracts settling at $1 or $0. Kalshi's product design deliberately avoids classification as a securities swap or sports-betting instrument, maintaining a clear line between its regulated event-contract framework and the SEC's domain. The geographic footprint is domestic, focused exclusively on US-based participants, though the underlying event categories span global questions. In February 2025, Kalshi launched election-outcome contracts for the 2025 New York City mayoral primary, marking an expansion into sub-federal political event markets after a 2024 federal court ruling cleared the CFTC's prior block on election-related contracts. The firm's team remains concentrated in its New York headquarters, with Mansour as the public-facing executive and Lopes Lara overseeing operations and compliance. Kalshi has raised venture capital from investors including Sequoia Capital, Charles Schwab, and Henry Kravis, though the firm regularly notes that Sequoia's investment made Kalshi the first Sequoia-backed exchange and the first exchange the firm invested in before launch (per the firm, 2021). Kalshi's structural differentiator is the regulatory moat itself: it is, as of 2025, the only federally regulated exchange where individuals can trade directly on the outcomes of future events without those contracts being classified as securities, swaps, or gambling instruments. That unique charter creates a jurisdictional lock-in — competitors cannot enter the same space without replicating years of CFTC licensing and compliance construction. The exchange operates a central-limit order book with Kalshi as the clearing counterparty, meaning users face the exchange, not each other, for settlement purposes.
General information
Firm type
Asset Manager
Year founded
2018
AUM
Undisclosed
Location
Region
North America
Country
United States
City
New York
Corporate office
New York, NY, United States
Principals
Tarek Mansour
Co-founder & CEO
Luana Lopes Lara
Co-founder & COO
Sector focus
Frequently asked questions
Who founded Kalshi and what are their backgrounds?
Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara co-founded Kalshi in 2018. Mansour previously worked in financial services and studied at MIT, while Lopes Lara also brings a background in finance and operations. Both hold executive roles at the firm — Mansour as CEO and Lopes Lara as COO — and have been the primary public-facing representatives of the company throughout its CFTC licensing process.
What makes Kalshi's regulatory structure different from other prediction platforms?
Kalshi is a CFTC-designated Designated Contract Market, making it the only federally regulated exchange in the US where individuals can trade event contracts directly. That means it operates under the same regulator as the CME Group, rather than falling under SEC jurisdiction or operating offshore. Each contract is settled through Kalshi's clearinghouse, and the platform deals exclusively in US dollars — no cryptocurrency or offshore settlement mechanisms are involved.
What types of event contracts does Kalshi offer?
Kalshi's contract categories span economics — including Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, GDP growth figures, and inflation releases — as well as climate indicators, political outcomes, and cultural events such as Academy Award winners. Contracts are structured as binary all-or-nothing positions: a trader buys 'yes' on an outcome at a price between $0.01 and $0.99, and the contract settles at $1 if correct or $0 if not. All contracts are denominated and settled in fiat US dollars.
Is Kalshi available to users outside the United States?
No. Kalshi's regulatory designation restricts participation to US-based individuals and entities. The exchange does not currently offer its event contracts to non-US residents, which distinguishes it from cryptocurrency-based prediction platforms that typically operate without geographic restrictions. Kalshi has not announced plans for international expansion as of mid-2025.
Does Kalshi offer election-outcome trading?
Yes. Following a federal court ruling in 2024 that overturned a CFTC order blocking election-related event contracts, Kalshi launched political-outcome trading. By February 2025, the exchange had expanded into sub-federal election markets, including contracts on the 2025 New York City mayoral primary. Previously, a CFTC order had prohibited the exchange from listing contracts on which party would control Congress.
How is Kalshi funded and who are its notable investors?
Kalshi has raised venture capital from a group of investors including Sequoia Capital, Charles Schwab, and Henry Kravis. The Sequoia investment is notable because Kalshi represents the first exchange in Sequoia's portfolio and, by Kalshi's own account, the first exchange Sequoia backed prior to launch (per the firm, 2021). Specific funding rounds and valuations beyond the disclosed investor list are not publicly detailed by the company.
How does Kalshi make money on its contracts?
Kalshi generates revenue through a fee structure applied to trading activity on the exchange, though the specific fee schedule is not explicitly detailed in public communications. The exchange operates a central-limit order book where Kalshi acts as the clearing counterparty to all trades, earning fees from matched transactions rather than through market-making spreads. As a regulated exchange and clearinghouse, Kalshi's fee model is designed to fall within the standard practices for CFTC-supervised designated contract markets.
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